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生猪出场价格高位波动 鸡蛋出场价格低位运行——前三季度全区主要畜禽产品价格运行情况分析及后期走势预测
来源: 发布时间: 2020-10-21 09:49
    今年前三季度全区生猪出场价格总体处于高位波动的运行态势,价格整体水平高于去年同期,猪粮比价高于去年同期;鸡蛋出场价格出现下行,价格低于去年同期。预计四季度生猪出场价格将高位调整,鸡蛋出场价格震荡走高。

一、前三季度生猪出场价格呈现高位波动态势

(一)生猪出场价格监测情况

2018年下半年全国多地爆发非洲猪瘟疫情以来,国内生猪养殖受到严重影响。2020年初到现在,生猪产能加速恢复,但生猪供应量还未达到正常水平,因此,2020年前三季度全区生猪平均出场价格为1776.28元/50公斤,比去年同期上涨60.59%。前三季度全区猪粮比价为18.40:1,猪粮比价高于去年同期的18.271。

 

从月度监测情况来看,今年前三季度,全区生猪出场价格呈现倒“W”型高位波动走势。1—9月份各月价格环比涨跌幅度分别为6.07%、2.67%、0.75%、-7.16%、-10.48%、13.97%、16.87%、-1.33%、-4.25%。5月20日生猪出场价格降至前三季度的最低水平1420.67元/50公斤,与年初相比累计下降11.96%,之后由于前段时间大部分养殖户将还未达到出栏标准的生猪提前卖出,导致市场上猪源减少,加上受疫情影响,我国进口肉检验更加严格,已先后宣布暂停包括德国、巴西、美国等多个国家肉类的进口,供求变化导致猪价上涨。7月15日生猪出场价格涨至前三季度的最高水平1857.33元/50公斤,与年初相比累计上涨15.10%,之后价格再次出现下降。从9月上旬开始,随着各项政策落地生效,为生猪产能恢复创造了更加有利的外部条件,同时,各地陆续投放了部分储备肉,增加市场供应,满足节假日猪肉消费需求,生猪出场价格连续下降,截止9月30日全区生猪平均出场价格为1626.67元/50公斤,连续五周下降,比去年同期上涨25.49%。

 

随着生猪出场价格的变动,全区猪粮比价也呈现“W”型的走势,由年初的19.391升至3月4日的前三季最高点20.311,之后降至5月20日的前三季度最低点15.51:1,而后再次出现波动。截止9月30日全区猪粮比价为16.48:1,高于去年同期的14.97:1,仍处于价格上涨红色预警区域。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

 

(二)后期生猪出场价格走势预测

四季度随着气候转冷,猪肉消费进入旺季,带动生猪出场价格迎来一波小高峰,预计春节前生猪出场价格将呈现高位运行态势,春节后或出现稳步下行。值得注意的是,2020年冬季新冠肺炎疫情和非洲猪瘟疫情仍存在不确定性,猪肉市场供应端压力依然存在,建议有关部门要密切关注本地区生猪产能和价格情况,加快生猪生产恢复发展,正确引导市场舆论,减少消费者的担心,保障猪肉市场健康稳定运行。

长远来看,如无疫情发生,随着生猪产能持续加快恢复,生猪市场供应稳步增加,猪价出现下滑是大概率事件,预计明年下半年生猪出场价格有望稳步回归到合理水平。

二、前三季度鸡蛋出场价格低位运行

(一)鸡蛋出场价格监测情况

从前三季度全区鸡蛋出场价格对比来看,2017年受禽流感疫情影响,导致鸡蛋市场需求不足,全区鸡蛋出场价格处于低位。后期受鸡蛋出场价低迷和禽流感疫情影响,蛋鸡饲养规模出现明显缩减,价格开始上升。之后市场补栏积极性提高,鸡蛋价格出现反弹。截止到2020年前三季度全区每50公斤鸡蛋平均出场价格为348.15元,比去年同期下降26.49%。

 

今年前三季度,全区鸡蛋出场价格整体水平低于去年同期。1—9月份各月价格环比变化幅度分别为-8.34%、-21.56%、-2.64%、-0.22%、-4.66%、-5.22%、1.26%、29.90%、2.35%。其中,1月至6月份,全区鸡蛋出场价格下跌较为明显,主要原因有:一方面,各地疫情形势得到有效控制,食堂、饭店虽已开始堂食,但消费情况并未完全恢复;另一方面,当前产蛋鸡存栏量处于近两年高位,2018年以来鸡蛋市场连续盈利,且2019年利润达到较高水平,下半年达到补栏高潮,鸡蛋市场处于供大于需的状态。至7月1日全区鸡蛋平均出场价格降至前三季度的最低点为269.93元/50公斤,与年初相比累计降幅达35.94%。从7月上旬之后,全区鸡蛋出场价格开始出现上涨态势,鸡蛋出场价格上涨的主要原因有:一是前期鸡蛋出场价格跌破3元/斤,部分养殖户加速老鸡的淘汰;二是“三伏”天气变热,蛋鸡进入歇伏期,产蛋量减少,市场供应量有所下降;三是随着各地疫情形势得到有效控制,加之猪肉价格高位运行,消费者对鸡蛋的需求有所增加。9月16日全区鸡蛋平均出场价格为390.60元/50公斤,比7月1日价格上涨44.70%,比去年同期下降27.91%。随着中秋、国庆前食品加工企业备货结束,鸡蛋出场价格开始有所回落,9月30日全区鸡蛋出场价格为374.73元/50公斤,比9月23日下降2.78%,比去年同期下降30.09%。

 

 

(二)后期鸡蛋出场价格走势预测

供给方面,2020年前三季度鸡蛋市场价格整体低于去年同期,蛋鸡补栏的积极性小幅走弱,市场产能有所下降。需求方面,“国庆”过后到春节之前,鸡蛋市场迎来第二个季节性消费高峰,考虑到在肉类价格高位的情况下,居民一定程度会增加禽肉、禽蛋的消费。另外,由于饲料价格出现上涨,也对蛋价起到支撑作用。综合供需,预计四季度全区鸡蛋出场价格将会以波动上涨走势为主。

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